Future Change and Flood Risk

The Change and Flood Risk Focus Area is led by Keith Beven (Lancaster University), Jim Hall (Oxford University) and Rob Lamb (JBA Consulting).

Key issues to be addressed include: making predictions of future changes in flood frequency and flood risk; communicating the nature of those predictions, and the uncertain assumptions on which they are based, to the user community; and the use of uncertain predictions in the decision-making process.

Workshops will bring together the academic researchers and the user and practitioner community in defining the needs, scope and means of delivery of key learning in the area.


Flood Risk Assessment and Brownfield Regeneration

Our event on February 15th 2011 in conjunction with the North West Brownfield Regeneration Forum (NWBRF) brought together 55 delegates including consultants, academics and the business community to consider the changing face of flood risk assessment in the context of land redevelopment.  Presentations covered impacts of legislation, contaminant mobilisation concerns and an update on the development of Guidelines for flood risk mapping. Each  of the other presentations were case-study centred  and focussed on urban regeneration in Rotherham, breach modelling in the North West and sustainable development and flood risk  in Cockermouth, Darlington and Stockton.

Iwan Lawton, Environment Agency and Andy Cameron, Lancashire County Council
Floods and Water Management Act – duties and progress 

Simon Gilliland, Mouchel
Issues with flooding at Brownfield sites – Mobilisation of contaminants within flood water

Keith Beven, Lancaster Environment Centre
Developing Guidelines for Flood Risk Mapping – Incorporating Uncertainty

Keith Beven, Lancaster Environment Centre
Discussion session – developing decision support guidelines 

James Mead, Environment Agency
Rotherham Renaissance Flood Alleviation Scheme – a partnership project designed to protect existing riverside assets in tandem with the regeneration of Brownfield sites

Phil Raynor, Capita Symonds
The North-West Breach scenario project- modelling knowns, unknowns and effects.

Sam Wingfield, JBA Consulting
SWMPs and SFRAs  – Case studies at Cockermouth, Darlington and Stockton


Beyond PPS25 – should uncertainty in flood risk mapping make a difference?

Our event on September 28th 2010 in conjunction with the RTPI Development Planning Network prompted a discussion across the planning community around developing a general framework and practical guidance for dealing with uncertainty, with a particular focus on flood data, modelling and mapping. It attracted over 30 delegates with a varied range of interests and responsibilities across development and planning. Presentations from the meeting are available to view


A series of facilitated group Discussion Sessions (led by Simon McCarthy) allowed us to explore what aspects of visualising an uncertain flood risk are of particular importance to the planning and development community.

A Workshop Report is now available.


First CCN Workshop on Uncertainty in Flood Mapping


Our first Stakeholder Workshop (in conjunction with FRMRC) on “Uncertainty in Flood Mapping” was held in Sheffield in December 2009. Participants explored and started to develop a general framework and practical guidance for dealing with uncertainty associated with flood data, modelling and mapping.

The workshop was based around interactive worked examples for real locations (the River Eden near Carlisle and the River Don at Mexborough) to illustrate how practical tools can be used to deal with uncertainty.The meeting helped us to define the shape, format and contents of Draft Guidelines and how they could support decision making. A ‘Catchment Conversation’ based on the meeting by Keith Beven can be found here.

‘A User Guide to the Risk and Uncertainty Decision Tree Wiki Site’ is now available to download as a pdf on the Flood Risk Management Research Consortium website under Uncertainty and Risk Communication.